European Futures

A sense of crisis and decline hangs over Europe. It surfaces in Commission white papers, think tank reports, political speeches, opinion polls, and news media headlines.

The sources that fuel this perception of crisis are many: there’s a demographic decline, with Europe’s population to start decreasing in 2026. This is associated with an economic decline, with flatlining growth across most of the continent and with Europe’s share of global GDP shrinking by the year.

Europe’s competitiveness is faltering too, and it’s falling measurably behind in the development of critical technologies compared to the United States and China.

There’s a full-scale war on the continent, now in its fourth year, and the United States looks set on exchanging the long-standing transatlantic partnership for one that’s more transactional in nature.

Viewed through that lens, a “downturn scenario” can feel like Europe’s inescapable destiny.

This issue looks beyond today’s crises to envision Europe’s future(s). What
might the next decade bring, and what second- or third-order effects arise
from today’s choices?